The Sample Set - Take 2

I am not satisfied with my list of schools. The selection process was too arbitrary. I want to apply to schools where I have a real chance at being admitted, but I would also like to have some kind of gauge to rank the schools by how likely I am to be admitted. The deny/weak consider labels on lawschoolpredictor.com are just too broad to separate the deny where I have zero chance from a place where I have a small but realistic chance of admission. Well, the index calculation that is used to make that deny/weak consider prediction provides information that has allowed me to select schools that are nicely spread out on a scale of admissions probability. A little bit of data entry into Excel and a few simple calculations later, I have a number that gives me an idea of which pile my file would end up in on the admission dean's desk. Here's my "percentile" the top 30 or so schools. I stopped doing the math after most of the predictions were admit or consider/strong consider. You can click on the image to make it easier to read.
I think the predictor puts you at a weak consider if your index number is at the 25% percentile value (the "percentile" is given on the y axis in the graph; I can send you my spreadsheet if you would like to try this exercise yourself. I just calculated the equation that describes the line made by the index values at 25,50, and 75%. I used this equation to calculate the "percentile" that my index value would have on this scale to give myself an idea of how far out of or inside the acceptance window my numbers put me.). Looking at my number like this allows me to see that my deny at a place like Texas or UCLA is actually very close to a weak consider. I have looked through these new numbers and changed my mind on which schools I will be applying to in the next couple of months.

I am not going to apply anywhere that my index "percentile" is negative. As I said in my first sample set post, I live in Virginia so I was happy to see that I'm just on the positive side for UVA. Here is my new list with the "percentile" value that I calculated.

Here is my new list of schools along with the prediction and the calculated "percentile" value.

School	"Percentile"	Prediction
Duke	5.9	Deny
UVA	1.0	Deny
UCLA	20.6	Deny
Vandy	11.8	Deny
Minn	31.3	Weak Consider
Notre Dame	25.7	Weak Consider
W&M	34.1	Weak Consider
GMU	47.1	Consider
Cinncinnatti	>50	Strong Consider
Tennessee	>50	Admit
Lewis and Clark	>50	Strong Consider
Richmond	>50	Admit

I would like to apply to Cornell and Georgetown, but my application fee funds are limited. At this point I have a nice mix of schools that combine my desires for a law school and a nice range of admission probability, at least using my admittedly arbitrary and potentially totally meaningless way of gauging my likelihood of admission to different schools. At least I was able to come up with a non-arbitrary way of seeing where I fall in the deny continuum for the more competitive programs.

I did a quick check at LSN. My numbers fall right in a thicket of deny and waitlist spots for places like Duke, UVA, and Vanderbilt. There is nobody in their system with my numbers so I don't have the ideal control, but there are enough people with numbers near mine who applied to some of these schools to confirm that there aren't very many acceptance letters going out to people with numbers like mine. We'll see if my big softs, the PhD and my work experience, will get me over the edge. Maybe there will be somebody else in this cycle on LSN with a 168 and 3.0ish GPA.